This was first published in The College Voice on 10/19/07
I was troubled to read in the Voice two weeks ago a letter criticizing my use of established climate science. It seems the writer of the letter thinks that everything will be fine if we keep living as we have, and that he doesn’t trust the conclusions of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC), recent recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize. Unfortunately, the scientific majority represented by the IPCC determined that climate change is primarily caused by humans, and this means that if we’re to protect ourselves, our families, and our land, we’re going to have to make some serious lifestyle adjustments.
Questioning the infallibility of the IPCC report is completely justified: nothing is ever sure in science. No theory in science is ever proven correct; it can only be temporarily upheld. It is wide acceptance throughout the scientific community, not certainty, that gives theories authority. That said, the 2001 Third Assessment by the IPCC was one of the most heavily peer-reviewed scientific documents ever, and the more current Fourth Assessment represents an even stronger consensus. For more information, visit http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/11/13/221250/49.
As the writer of the letter mentions, the climate has actually been warming for a long time, before the start of industrialization and the emission of greenhouse gases. In fact, the planet has been warming for approximately 17,000 years. What is new, though, is an extreme increase in the rate of warming, occurring within the past century. Due to this acceleration’s proximity to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions, most climate scientists accept these as the source of recent warming.
Many studies are cited in the letter which suggest that solar irradiance and water vapor are more significant causes of climate change than greenhouse gas emissions. Unfortunately, most of these are from a journal (Geophysical Research Letters) that is subscription-only and not available to students at the library. Thus, it is difficult for me to specifically address the data presented in these studies. However, according to the IPCC report from April 2007, “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” (Working Group 2 summary, IPCC) Also, according to one of the many charts provided in the summaries of the report, greenhouse gases account for approximately 10 times the effect of solar irradiance and stratospheric water vapor combined.
It is true, though, that at least water vapor in the atmosphere does play a big part in the greenhouse effect. There is an important distinction to be made, though. As the air gets warmer, it can hold more water in suspension, which in turn contributes to the greenhouse effect and makes the air get even warmer. It’s called a feedback loop. But the key concept there is that CO2 and the other greenhouse gases do the main part of the warming, prior to water vapor having an effect.
In further objection to the assertion that the sun is the main contributor to climate change, I must note a few studies. According to the World Radiation Center, there has been no major increase in solar irradiance since at least 1978, which is as far back as we have satellite data for (http://www.pmodwrc.ch/pmod.php?topic=tsi/composite/SolarConstant). Furthermore, the Max Planck Institute in Germany has attempted to reconstruct historical solar irradiance, and shows that there has been no significant change since 1940 (http://www.mps.mpg.de/images/projekte/sun-climate/climate.gif), the period in which the greatest temperature change has occurred.
The writer of the letter makes one valuable point, regarding hybrids: it is important to do sufficient research before you make claims about the relative environmental worth of various products. However, the writer doesn’t seem to have followed his own advice here. He attempts to initiate a life-cycle assessment (LCA for short, the standard way of determining environmental impacts), but barely smudges the paint job: he describes some of the detrimental effects of producing nickel for hybrid batteries but fails to consider the equally (if not more) horrendous consequences of petroleum production. He may have been influenced by another attempt at a full LCA, cited in The Economist and conducted by CNW Marketing Research, Inc. about a year ago. This report concluded, roughly, that diesel vehicles are better for the environment than are hybrids. However, there are numerous problems with this LCA attempt, discussed in depth in this article from Grist Magazine: http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2007/2/12/115426/732. If you are interested, please read it.
Finally, if you have any quibbles about what you take to be the “gospel truth” of climate science, please check out www.realclimate.org.